After the global dominance of BTS and BLACKPINK, K-pop is now grappling with a shortage of international superstars.
Once hailed for its explosive growth, K-pop is beginning to show signs of slowing down, sparking questions about the genre's ability to maintain its global appeal. With the hiatus of major icons like BTS and BLACKPINK, the industry is at risk of lacking groups with the same global influence, creating pressure to sustain its momentum.
Current Situation and Signs of Slowing Down
A report from the Korea Customs Service revealed that K-pop's physical album export revenue in 2023 reached $294.8 million USD, a modest increase of only 0.55% compared to 2022. This marks the lowest growth rate in a decade, signaling the first sign of stagnation in the industry’s growth. Moreover, physical album sales dropped by 17.7%, from 120.2 million copies in 2022 to 98.9 million copies in 2023. The Japanese market, one of the top three export markets for K-pop, also saw a significant decline in demand.
The primary cause of this downturn is the absence of big groups. The new generation of K-pop groups has yet to match the global influence and success of BTS and BLACKPINK. Even with Seventeen setting a record by selling 16 million albums in 2023, their sales still saw a decline compared to previous years.
Causes and Lessons Learned
Music critic Kim Yoon-ha pointed out that in the past, K-pop’s album sales were largely driven by a few dominant groups. The surge in sales during the pandemic, she noted, was an "abnormal exaggeration" that highlighted the industry’s over-reliance on a small number of major groups rather than a more diversified development strategy.
Additionally, traditional marketing methods are gradually losing their effectiveness. Kim emphasized the need for innovation in marketing strategies, particularly since concert revenue now accounts for 50-60% of K-pop companies' total income. Combining merchandise sales with live performances has become an essential factor for sustaining growth in the industry.
Future Directions
Given the current challenges, the emergence of a new group capable of leading K-pop into the future is crucial. Kim Yoon-ha believes that K-pop typically goes through a generational transition every seven years, but the industry seems to have missed the ideal moment for this transition, contributing to the current slowdown.
To navigate this period, the focus should be on nurturing new boy bands, as they are considered key to sustaining K-pop's growth. Moreover, long-term strategies must aim to diversify market approaches, reduce reliance on a handful of major groups, and ensure the industry's sustainability as a whole.
The slowdown of K-pop serves as both a wake-up call and an opportunity for the industry to reflect and reform. The future of K-pop depends on its ability to adapt, innovate, and create new musical icons who can shape the next generation of global superstars. In the fierce competition of global entertainment, unity and creativity will be the key to K-pop's ability to maintain its pioneering position.
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